Reckless Fools & Careful Wise Men : A Crash Spares Nobody

“Reckless fools lost first because they deserved to lose, and careful, wise men lost later because a world-wide earthquake doesn't ask for personal references.” - 1932 Edwin LeFevre

1929 Stock Market Crash Movie :

Watch the full episode. See more American Experience.

QQQ / TQQQ / QLD 10/240mac : Last Man Standing

Sent the note below to the respected trend follower Easan Katir this evening. His work on the 10/240mac I speak about often. Definite recommended reading if you want to understand what I'm talking about when I mention 10/240mac.
http://www.easankatir.com/resources/articles/articlesbyeasan/Superior_Returns_from_Average_Indicators.shtml

10ma is dark blue and the 240ma is red on the following charts :

QQQ
http://screencast.com/t/OSSo76XMMz

TQQQ
http://screencast.com/t/Wuq5bn17Nq

QLD
http://screencast.com/t/5aFjLKI3ihH

Mr. Katir very interesting stuff here. QQQ, TQQQ, QLD never had the negative 10/240mac. They are below the 240ma which is not ideal, but according to the rules there is no SELL until you get the cross over. If markets are going to bounce with any significance I think these could LEAD much like they did in Sep 2010. QQQ, TQQQ, QLD 240ma lines up with the 50% retrace from the recent waterfall. Could be a nice grind higher, or a fast snap back to those levels if not higher. I like these best vs SPY, DIA, IWM and all their juiced up beta pairs because they all had negative 10/240mac. Thesis is : that which led us shall continue to lead. Ie: AAPL, BIDU, and all those other NASDAQ leaders.

Thoughts?

ARCO - LEADER Characteristics On This Ipo

I picked up ARCO originally at 21.35 (given out real time on the Twitter feed to the right) based on some Ipo techniques that I've been deploying rather successfully this year. More to come on those in a future post. ARCO however is a winner, and looking to become a leader as it's earnings report to me has the scent of the Eau de toilette: CANSLIM via this writer's guru Mr. William J. O'neil founder of Investor's Business Daily. I realize these earnings are EBITA and if you listen to Steve Wynn he would suggest to you you're crazy forecasting off of unaudited EBITA, but hey, we're chart guys here. ARCO ranks a 98 composite in the 7th best industry group of the 197 tracked. Now it's relative strength needs to pick up to become a real LEADER. 24.27 was a buy point hit today, and there is an additional new high buy point at 26.05 that would need 40% above average volume to be buyable. The chart below applies some of my Ipo techniques in order to come up with a Fibonacci extension target as well as support / resistance areas that we are navigating presently. I want to see 23.82 flip to support now. There's a confluence zone between my original buy point of 21.35 and the 50% retracement of 21.46. I see new highs coming in this one if the overall market conditions would improve. On the sponsorship quotient of the CANSLIM formula Fido aka Fidelity is a 9% owner of ARCO across 9 of it's funds.


http://screencast.com/t/J2Yc9eOsRGa

"5:04PM Arcos Dorados beats by $0.04, beats on revs, raises FY11 revenue growth guidance, reaffirms FY11 EPS growth guidance (ARCO) 23.54 +0.10 : Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.07 per share, $0.04 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.03; revenues rose 28.7% year/year to $888.5 mln vs the $853.3 mln consensus. Based on stronger than forecasted year-to-date results and the current outlook for operations and currencies for the remainder of 2011, Arcos Dorados has modified its outlook for the full-year 2011. The company now expects year-over-year consolidated revenue growth of 22-24%, up from prior expectation of 15-17%, and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 18-20%. Additionally, the company estimates an increase in net income of 35-45% in 2011." from briefing.com


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Arcos-Dorados-Reports-Second-bw-867473074.html?x=0&.v=1